Game Theory
Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics that provides a framework for analyzing strategic interactions — situations where the outcome for each participant depends not only on their own actions but also on the actions of others.
This guide covers the core concepts of game theory — Nash Equilibrium, dominant strategies, the Prisoner's Dilemma, sequential games, mixed strategies, and backward induction — with worked examples, memory aids, and a 10-question practice quiz.
1Introduction
Game theory has revolutionized how economists understand strategic decision-making. Far from being a mere academic curiosity, it provides powerful tools for analyzing situations ranging from the pricing decisions of oligopolistic firms to international trade negotiations, environmental policy, and auction design.
At its core, game theory formalizes interactive situations where rational players make interdependent decisions. Unlike traditional economic models that treat agents as isolated decision-makers, game theory explicitly accounts for the fact that each participant's optimal choice depends on what they expect others to do.
- Oligopoly analysis: Models pricing, output, and advertising decisions among interdependent firms.
- Negotiation & bargaining: Provides frameworks for labor disputes, trade agreements, and contract design.
- Public policy: Informs regulation, auction design, environmental agreements, and mechanism design.
- Everyday decisions: Explains strategic behavior in auctions, voting, sports, and competitive situations.
Game theory is not limited to economics. Its applications span political science, biology (evolutionary game theory), computer science (algorithm design), and military strategy. The 1994 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to John Nash, John Harsanyi, and Reinhard Selten for their contributions to game theory.
2Key Definitions
Essential vocabulary for understanding game theory at the university level.
Game
A formal model of an interactive situation where rational players make interdependent decisions
Players
The individuals or entities making strategic decisions within the game (e.g., firms, governments, consumers)
Strategy
A complete plan of action for a player in all possible contingencies within the game
Payoff
The utility or value a player receives from a particular outcome (e.g., profits, utility, years in prison)
Nash Equilibrium
A set of strategies where no player can improve their payoff by unilaterally changing their strategy
Dominant Strategy
A strategy that yields a higher payoff for a player regardless of what other players do
Payoff Matrix
A table showing payoffs for each player for every combination of strategies; used for simultaneous games
Zero-Sum Game
A game where the sum of payoffs for all players is always zero; one player's gain equals another's loss
Backward Induction
Solving a sequential game by starting at the end of the game tree and working backward to the first move
Mixed Strategy
Randomizing over actions with specific probabilities; used when no pure strategy NE exists
Subgame Perfect NE
A Nash Equilibrium that is also a NE in every subgame; found via backward induction in sequential games
Best Response
The strategy that yields the highest payoff for a player given the strategies chosen by all other players
3Types of Games
Games can be classified along several dimensions. Understanding these distinctions is essential for selecting the correct analytical framework.
Simultaneous vs. Sequential
Simultaneous Games
Players choose their strategies at the same time, without knowing the other players' choices.
Representation: Payoff matrix (normal form).
Solution: Find Nash Equilibria via best-response analysis or dominant strategy elimination.
Sequential Games
Players make decisions in a specific order, with later players observing earlier moves.
Representation: Decision tree (extensive form).
Solution: Backward induction to find Subgame Perfect Nash Equilibrium.
Zero-Sum vs. Non-Zero-Sum
Zero-Sum Games
The sum of payoffs for all players is always zero. One player's gain is exactly another's loss.
Examples: Poker, chess, penalty kicks, many competitive sports.
Non-Zero-Sum Games
The sum of payoffs can vary. Players can both gain or both lose — cooperation may be mutually beneficial.
Examples: Prisoner's Dilemma, coordination games, trade negotiations.
Cooperative vs. Non-Cooperative
Cooperative Games
Players can form binding agreements to coordinate their strategies. Focus is on coalition formation and surplus division.
Non-Cooperative Games
Players cannot form binding agreements; each acts independently to maximize their own payoff. Most economic game theory analysis uses this framework.
4The Prisoner's Dilemma & Nash Equilibrium
The Prisoner's Dilemma is the most famous game in game theory. It illustrates a fundamental conflict between individual rationality and collective welfare.
The Setup
Two suspects are arrested and interrogated separately. Each can Confess or Remain Silent. The payoffs represent years in prison (lower is better).
| B: Confess | B: Stay Silent | |
|---|---|---|
| A: Confess | A: 5 yrs, B: 5 yrs | A: 0 yrs, B: 10 yrs |
| A: Stay Silent | A: 10 yrs, B: 0 yrs | A: 1 yr, B: 1 yr |
Analysis
Dominant Strategy: For Suspect A, confessing is always better (5 < 10 if B confesses; 0 < 1 if B stays silent). The same logic applies to Suspect B.
Nash Equilibrium: (Confess, Confess) is the unique Nash Equilibrium, producing payoffs of (5 years, 5 years).
The Paradox: The individually rational choice leads to a collectively worse outcome (5 years each) than if both had cooperated and stayed silent (1 year each). This is a non-zero-sum game where self-interest undermines collective welfare.
Finding Nash Equilibria: Best-Response Method
To find pure strategy Nash Equilibria in a payoff matrix, use the best-response method:
- For each of Player 2's strategies, identify Player 1's best response and underline that payoff.
- For each of Player 1's strategies, identify Player 2's best response and underline that payoff.
- Any cell where both payoffs are underlined is a Nash Equilibrium.
5Advanced Concepts
Mixed Strategies
When a game has no pure strategy Nash Equilibrium, players randomize over their actions with specific probabilities. A mixed strategy Nash Equilibrium exists when no player can improve their expected payoff by changing their probabilities.
Key principle: Each player's mixing probabilities are chosen to make the opponent indifferent among their own pure strategies.
Expected payoff formula: E(payoff) = p × (payoff if action A) + (1 – p) × (payoff if action B), weighted by the opponent's probabilities.
Nash's Theorem: Every finite game has at least one Nash Equilibrium, possibly in mixed strategies.
Backward Induction & Subgame Perfect NE
For sequential games, a Subgame Perfect Nash Equilibrium (SPNE) refines the Nash Equilibrium concept by requiring that strategies form a Nash Equilibrium in every subgame — not just the overall game.
Backward induction: Start at the final decision nodes of the game tree. Determine the optimal choice at each terminal node. Then move backward to the preceding nodes, assuming future players will act optimally.
Why it matters: SPNE eliminates “non-credible threats” — strategies that are NE for the whole game but involve irrational behavior in subgames that would never actually occur.
Repeated Games & the Folk Theorem
When games are played repeatedly, new equilibrium outcomes become possible that are not achievable in the one-shot game.
Finitely Repeated
If the game has a known end point, backward induction from the final round often unravels cooperation, yielding the one-shot NE in every round.
Infinitely Repeated
With no known end point, strategies like tit-for-tat can sustain cooperation. The Folk Theorem states that many cooperative outcomes are sustainable if players are sufficiently patient.
6Worked Examples
Introductory
Oligopoly Pricing: Simultaneous Game with Dominant Strategies
Firms Alpha and Beta simultaneously choose High or Low Price. Payoffs are profits in millions.
| Beta: High | Beta: Low | |
|---|---|---|
| Alpha: High | ($50M, $50M) | ( 0M, $70M) |
| Alpha: Low | ($70M, 0M) | ( |